Petroleum Science >2025,??Issue6:??- DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.petsci.2024.07.018
Statistical assessment of the financial performance of shale-gas wells coupling stochastic and numerical simulation Open?Access
文章信息
作者：Andres Soage, Luis Ramirez, Ruben Juanes, Luis Cueto-Felgueroso, Ignasi Colominas
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引用方式：Andres Soage, Luis Ramirez, Ruben Juanes, Luis Cueto-Felgueroso, Ignasi Colominas, Statistical assessment of the financial performance of shale-gas wells coupling stochastic and numerical simulation, Petroleum Science, Volume 21, Issue 6, 2024, Pages 4497-4511, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.petsci.2024.07.018.
文章摘要
Abstract: We present a new methodology to statistically determine the net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR) as financial estimators of shale gas investments. Our method allows us to forecast, in a fully probabilistic setting, financial performance risk and to understand the importance of the different factors that impact investment. The methodology developed in this study combines, through Monte Carlo simulation, the computational modeling of gas production from shale gas wells with a stochastic simulation of gas price as a geometric Brownian motion (GMB). To illustrate the methodology's validity, we apply it to an analysis of investments in shale gas wells. Our results show that gas price volatility is a key variable in the performance of an investment of this type, in such a way that at high volatilities, the potential return on an investment in shale gas increases significantly, but so do the risks of economic loss. This finding is consistent with the history of shale gas operations in which huge investment successes coexist with unexpected investment failures.
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Keywords: Gas volatility; Shale gas; Net present value; Internal rate return; Stochastic model; Financial estimator; Monte Carlo simulation; Kernel density function